Maximizing the probability of detecting an electromagnetic counterpart of gravitational-wave events


Compact binary coalescences are a promising source of gravitational waves for second-generation interferometric gravitational-wave detectors such as advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo. These are among the most promising sources for joint detection of electromagnetic (EM) and gravitational-wave (GW) emission. To maximize the science performed with these objects, it is essential to undertake a followup observing strategy that maximizes the likelihood of detecting the EM counterpart. We present a follow-up strategy that maximizes the counterpart detection probability, given a fixed investment of telescope time. We show how the prior assumption on the luminosity function of the electro-magnetic counterpart impacts the optimized followup strategy. Our results suggest that if the goal is to detect an EM counterpart from among a succession of GW triggers, the optimal strategy is to perform long integrations in the highest likelihood regions. For certain assumptions about source luminosity and mass distributions, we find that an optimal time investment that is proportional to the 23 power of the surface density of the GW location probability on the sky. In the future, this analysis framework will benefit significantly from the 3-dimensional localization probability.

Experimental Astronomy
Michael Coughlin
David and Ellen Lee Prize Postdoctoral Fellow